With just over a third of the La Liga season remaining, the 2024-25 title race is heating up. Only two points separate leaders Real Madrid and third-place Barcelona, with Atlético Madrid in between. This marks the closest title battle at this stage since 2013-14, when Atlético eventually won the league.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid, aiming for their 37th league title, currently lead with 50 points after 23 matchdays. However, back-to-back winless games—a shock 1-0 loss to Espanyol and a home draw with Atlético—have put them under pressure. Another poor result against Osasuna could see them drop to third.
Their biggest concern is defense, with injuries affecting key players like Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, David Alaba, Antonio Rüdiger, and Lucas Vázquez, though Ancelotti expects some to return soon. Unlike last season, they do not lead in both goals scored and goals conceded—historically a key factor for title-winning teams.
Midfield adjustments have been challenging following Toni Kroos' retirement. While Dani Ceballos has started to control games, Aurélien Tchouaméni initially struggled in Kroos' role.
A bright spot is Kylian Mbappé, who has contributed 16 goals and two assists in his last 18 games. However, his presence has coincided with a decline in Jude Bellingham’s scoring rate and occasional struggles for Vinícius Júnior.
Barcelona
Barcelona, under Hansi Flick, started the season in dominant fashion, winning 11 of their first 12 games and leading by nine points at one stage. This included a 4-0 win over Real Madrid at the Bernabéu. However, an eight-game slump (W1 D3 L4) between November and January saw them fall behind their rivals.
They now sit on 48 points, fewer than at this stage last season (50) and 2022-23 (59). Despite this, they have the youngest squad in La Liga (24 years, 323 days on average) and the most potent attack, scoring 64 goals—the highest at this stage since Real Madrid’s 66 in 2015-16.
Robert Lewandowski leads the scoring charts with 19 goals, supported by 13-goal Raphinha and 10-assist teenager Lamine Yamal. Crucially, they still have to face both title rivals, meaning the title is still in their hands. Flick has had Madrid’s number, beating them 5-2 in the Supercopa de España in addition to their league victory.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético sit one point behind Real Madrid, with 49 points—their best tally at this stage since their 2020-21 title-winning campaign. They have the most experienced squad among contenders, averaging 28 years, 246 days.
Diego Simeone, now with over 500 La Liga games as Atlético’s coach, has built a defensive powerhouse. His team has conceded the fewest goals (15), kept the most clean sheets (11, tied with Real Sociedad), and allowed the lowest xG against them (20.3).
They have used just 24 players this season—only Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano (23) have used fewer—while Simeone has rotated to keep players fresh. Their toughest remaining game is against Barcelona at the Metropolitano, but they are unbeaten at home with the most home points (30).
Opta Supercomputer Predictions
The Opta supercomputer predicts Real Madrid as favorites, winning La Liga in 52.0% of simulations. Barcelona follows at 26.9%, while Atlético wins in 20.8% of cases. There’s an outside chance of another team winning, but it happened in just 29 of 10,000 simulations (28 for Athletic Club, one for Villarreal).
The last non-Barcelona/Madrid/Atlético winner was Valencia in 2003-04. Athletic Club last won in 1983-84, and Villarreal have never been champions. The odds heavily favor one of the top three to take the title once again.
