Change is something many resist, and understandably so.
However, the revamped Champions League format has surprisingly received a largely positive response, particularly after the drama of the final matchday in the league phase. With 18 games happening simultaneously, the number of possible outcomes kept fans on edge until the very last moment.
In the end, none of Europe’s biggest clubs were knocked out at this stage, but that didn’t mean there was a lack of tension. Several powerhouses, including Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Manchester City, and Paris Saint-Germain, failed to secure direct passage to the last 16 and now face an additional two games in the play-offs. This also means that either Madrid or City—two of the strongest sides in recent seasons—will be eliminated before the knockout rounds even begin.
For the fourth consecutive campaign, reigning European champions Real Madrid and pre-tournament favorites Manchester City will clash in this competition. It is a rare occurrence in the history of the European Cup/Champions League, with only three other fixtures being played in four straight seasons: Deportivo de La Coruña vs Juventus (2000-01 to 2003-04), Chelsea vs Liverpool (2004-05 to 2008-09), and Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid (2013-14 to 2016-17).
As a result, neither City nor Madrid are among the top contenders according to the Opta supercomputer’s predictions. Despite Real Madrid’s near-mystical relationship with this tournament, their likelihood of retaining the trophy is just 4.4% across 10,000 simulations, ranking them sixth among favorites. City, meanwhile, are considered even less likely to reclaim the title, with only a 3.4% chance, placing them ninth.
Of course, whichever team emerges from their high-stakes tie will see their chances rise significantly. However, it may not be enough to make them favorites for the title.
That distinction currently belongs to Liverpool. Despite their recent FA Cup upset against Plymouth Argyle, the Premier League leaders’ strong performance in the league phase has put them in pole position to lift the trophy at the Allianz Arena. The supercomputer sees them winning in 23.9% of simulations—by far the highest probability.
That said, their path isn’t straightforward. If PSG navigate past Brest in the play-offs, they will face either Liverpool or Barcelona in the last 16. Given PSG’s resurgence towards the end of the league phase, they are seen as the fifth most likely winners, lifting the trophy in 5.6% of simulations.
Arsenal, meanwhile, continue their search for a maiden Champions League title. The Gunners’ only previous appearance in the final came in 2006, but this time, they are considered serious contenders, ranking as second favorites with a 16.4% chance of winning. Mikel Arteta’s side will be a team no one wants to face in the knockouts.
Just behind them are Serie A champions Inter Milan at 15.0% and Barcelona at 10.1%. Barça came agonizingly close to topping the 36-team table but were denied by a draw with Atalanta on the final matchday.
Elsewhere, Bayern Munich—despite hosting this year’s final—have only a 2.5% probability of lifting the trophy in their own stadium. They must first overcome Celtic in the play-offs. Aston Villa, meanwhile, are long shots at 1.3%, despite securing direct passage to the last 16 and seemingly having a relatively favorable route ahead.
While the new format has brought excitement and unpredictability, the battle for European supremacy remains as intense as ever.
